L&F is a company where investors should focus on earnings rather than initial hype, especially if the US-Iran conflict prolongs. While initial supply chain realignments, a rebound in non-Chinese LFP, and metal prices could boost stock prices early on, prolonged conflict may dampen demand for electric vehicles (EVs). Therefore, selective earnings analysis is crucial.
How Will a Prolonged US-Iran Conflict Impact L&F Stock?
A prolonged US-Iran conflict creates a complex web of influences on L&F, affecting oil prices, logistics, battery raw material costs, and consumer sentiment. Geopolitical risks are already causing volatility in oil markets, with Brent crude prices fluctuating. Iran's significant role in global sulfur production (24% of the total) means that any supply disruptions due to conflict could increase nickel smelting costs. L&F might benefit from rising metal prices and potential supply chain shifts away from China, leading to initial stock price gains. However, this hinges on their ability to pass on increased costs to customers. If the conflict drags on, higher oil and shipping costs could negatively impact EV demand, making a focus on actual earnings performance even more critical. As of April 17, 2026, L&F's stock price stood at $140 (approx. ₩185,600), a 94.96% increase year-to-date. This suggests that much of the recovery expectation is already priced in, positioning the stock at a high level. Therefore, instead of chasing the stock, a strategy of closely observing its earnings trends is advisable.
What's Driving L&F's Recent Stock Surge?
L&F is regaining investor attention due to a combination of improving earnings signals and the establishment of new growth avenues. The company aims to achieve operating profit turnaround by Q4 2025, with a full-year profit expected in 2026. This is driven by expanding shipments of high-nickel cathode materials (Ni95) and new products for 4680 cylindrical batteries. Total shipments in 2025 increased by 34% year-over-year, with high-nickel cathode material shipments surging by approximately 75%. This recovery isn't just a thematic rebound; it's supported by increased shipments and the positive impact of raw material price increases on inventory valuation. The current stock movement can be interpreted as a confluence of improving industry outlook, concrete earnings recovery signs, geopolitical factors, and supply/demand dynamics. Furthermore, L&F's efforts to diversify its business beyond high-nickel cathode materials, including securing LFP cathode material contracts with Samsung SDI and entering the Energy Storage System (ESS) market, are beginning to yield tangible results.
Beyond High-Nickel: L&F's Growth Strategies
L&F is actively strengthening its competitiveness in its core high-nickel cathode material business while simultaneously pursuing new growth engines. A key development is the contract to supply LFP (lithium iron phosphate) cathode materials to Samsung SDI. This strategic move allows L&F to diversify its business structure beyond high-nickel materials and expand into the Energy Storage System (ESS) market, in addition to the electric vehicle (EV) market. LFP cathode materials are gaining traction for ESS applications due to their cost-effectiveness and enhanced safety. L&F's entry into this market aims to broaden its portfolio and secure new revenue streams, contributing to long-term corporate value enhancement. The company is also focusing on expanding its business scope within the ESS sector.
What Should Investors Watch for in L&F's Future?
Investors should monitor several key factors for L&F's future performance. Firstly, the company's ability to navigate the volatile raw material market, particularly nickel prices, and successfully pass on increased costs to customers through its selling prices will be crucial. Secondly, the competitive landscape for LFP cathode materials is intensifying, and L&F's market share and profitability in this segment will be important. Thirdly, the overall demand for EVs, which can be influenced by macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical events, will directly impact L&F's core business. Finally, the successful commercialization and scaling of its ESS business will be a significant determinant of its long-term growth potential. It's essential to remember that the stock price may have already incorporated significant future growth expectations, making careful analysis of financial performance and strategic execution paramount. This is not financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor.
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